Al-Ettifaq 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Taawon at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Taawon are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al Taawon and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 41% versus Al Taawon 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 41% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.31 xG and Al Taawon 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.992 / defence 0.962 | Al Taawon attack 1.071 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.381. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 46 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al Taawon 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.31 / Al Taawon 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.992 / def 0.962 | Al Taawon attack 1.071 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Taawon xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.07x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.70
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.73
1.42
Al Taawon xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.42 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 13D 17L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.87 PPG from 46 outings (25W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.86 points per game from 22 outings (12W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.61 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.64 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al Taawon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al Taawon 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 64% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Ettifaq 0-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.31 xG and Al Taawon 1.42 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Al Taawon attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 39%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.