Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 2.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Abha, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 46% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.49 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.592 / defence 0.977 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.701 / defence 0.548. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Abha's attack strength of 0.592 is below the league average — the 0.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.548 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.701 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Abha games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 4% | Draw 16% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 79%. Fair-value odds: Abha 25.00 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (79%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Abha 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 4% | Draw 16% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 79% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 37% | xG Abha 0.49 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.592 / def 0.977 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.701 / def 0.548 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.49
Abha xG
Expected Goals
2.45
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
37%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 4% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 79% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.59x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.70x) against Abha's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 2.45.
These ratings are built from 11/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
4%
23.36
16%
6.13
79%
1.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
0 – 3
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.49
Abha xG
Total xG
2.94
2.45
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
23.36
4%
Home win
6.13
16%
Draw
1.26
79%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
9%
11.61
61%
1.63
Win to Nil
0%
–
49%
2.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 13.0 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.49 expected goals for Abha and 2.45 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha come into this having played 11 games, going 0W 3D 8L for 0.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Abha's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 3.00 points per game from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.27 PPG overall record — Al-Qadisiyah FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 games (0.27 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.40 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Abha
0
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Abha) and 0% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Abha and 40% for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100%; Abha have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Abha's recent matches and 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Abha's recent games and 40% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.