Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 1.15 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 75% and Al-Ettifaq 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 75% | Al-Ettifaq 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.96 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.775 / defence 1.172 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.400. Abha's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Abha games / 38 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 19% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 52%. Fair-value odds: Abha 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 1.92. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Abha 75% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 19% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Abha 0.96 / Al-Ettifaq 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.775 / def 1.172 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Abha 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Abha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Abha 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
19%
5.17
28%
3.52
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Abha xG
Total xG
2.63
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
4%
27.66
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Abha and 1.68 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 7 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 75%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Abha and 75% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Abha's games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Abha's matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Abha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Abha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Abha 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 0.96 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Abha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 19% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 52%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 75%, Al-Ettifaq 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Abha managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.