Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Spartak Moscow: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Krylia Sovetov, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Spartak Moscow and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 68% versus Krylia Sovetov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 62% | Krylia Sovetov 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.53 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.208 / defence 0.834 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.076 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.296. Data: 37 Spartak Moscow games / 37 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 44% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 28%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Krylia Sovetov 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 80% | Krylia Sovetov 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 44% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.53 / Krylia Sovetov 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.208 / def 0.834 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.076 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Krylia Sovetov xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Lukoil Arena.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 44% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (10 meetings): Spartak Moscow 7W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.21x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.56
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.17 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 37 games, going 19W 8D 10L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.05 PPG from 37 outings (9W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.58 points per game from 19 outings (2W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.22 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.11 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 63%, Krylia Sovetov 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Spartak Moscow and 58% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Spartak Moscow's games and 47% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.