FC Rostov 3-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Rostov have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rostov Arena, FC Rostov have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Rostov are significantly better at Rostov Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, FC Rostov have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Krylia Sovetov managing just 2 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2024, ended 3–1 with FC Rostov winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Rostov and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 60% versus Krylia Sovetov 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 62% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.227 / defence 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.940 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.282. Data: 47 FC Rostov games / 47 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 48% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Krylia Sovetov 4.17. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 60% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 48% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Rostov 1.80 / Krylia Sovetov 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.227 / def 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.940 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Rostov 3 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 48% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (7 meetings): FC Rostov 5W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 2W.
What form are FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.23x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.94x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.51
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.06
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.25 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, FC Rostov have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 12D 17L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 16W 11D 20L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.26 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Rostov have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (12W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 4D 13L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.87 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Krylia Sovetov have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Rostov
0
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 61%, Krylia Sovetov 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Rostov and 56% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Rostov's games and 56% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Rostov's matches and 56% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Krylia Sovetov 3-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 48% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 24%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.40 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.