Santa Clara 2-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.88 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Miguel. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Santa Clara have the edge — a 0.58 PPG advantage (1.88 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 2, GIL Vicente 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Santa Clara winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 38% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 38% | GIL Vicente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / defence 0.974 | GIL Vicente attack 0.856 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.070. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Santa Clara games / 42 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 45% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 26%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | GIL Vicente 3.85. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 25% | GIL Vicente 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 45% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Santa Clara 1.28 / GIL Vicente 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / def 0.974 | GIL Vicente attack 0.856 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:45 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara 2 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente part of?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 45% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Santa Clara and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Record (4 meetings): Santa Clara 2W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.50
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.89 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 0D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; GIL Vicente in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or GIL Vicente away?
Santa Clara's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 2.25 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 25%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Santa Clara) and 50% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out GIL Vicente 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against GIL Vicente attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 45% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 26%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 38%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.