Farense 1-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Estrela at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Farense's home record at Estádio de São Lúis: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Farense are significantly better at Estádio de São Lúis than their overall form suggests.
Estrela — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estrela have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 0.50 PPG versus Estrela's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Farense have won 1, Estrela 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Farense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estrela in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 53% versus Estrela 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 51% | Estrela 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.34 xG and Estrela 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.773 / defence 1.187 | Estrela attack 0.774 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.160. Farense's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estrela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Farense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Farense games / 45 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 43% | Draw 27% | Estrela 30%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Estrela 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Farense 60% | Estrela 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 43% | Draw 27% | Estrela 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Farense 1.34 / Estrela 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.773 / def 1.187 | Estrela attack 0.774 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Farense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Estrela xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Estrela kick off?
Farense vs Estrela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Estrela?
Farense 1 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Farense vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Estrela part of?
Farense vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 43% chance of winning, Estrela a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Farense and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estrela?
Record (2 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 1 | Estrela 0W.
What form are Farense and Estrela in?
Farense (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Estrela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Farense vs Estrela?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.67
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Farense xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
Estrela xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Farense and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Farense and 1.07 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Farense have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 11W 9D 25L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela's form line: 9W 15D 21L from 45 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.93 PPG, Estrela on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 10D 11L from 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.96 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Estrela in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 11W 9D 25L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Estrela have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Estrela away?
Farense's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.14 PPG; Estrela away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Farense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Farense's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Farense
1
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estrela?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 3, Estrela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Estrela 0-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Estrela?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 50%, Estrela 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Farense) and 36% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 27% of games; Estrela in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Farense's recent matches and 41% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Farense's recent games and 36% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Estrela tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Estrela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Farense edge out Estrela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.34 xG and Estrela 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estrela landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Estrela attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 43% | Draw 27% | Estrela 30%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 51%, Estrela 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Estrela's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.93 PPG, Estrela 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.