Estoril 4-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's home record at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Estoril, 4 for Arouca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 52% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 57% | Arouca 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.19 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.764 / defence 1.119 | Arouca attack 0.883 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.071. Estoril's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Estoril games / 42 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Arouca 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 20% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Estoril 1.19 / Arouca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.764 / def 1.119 | Arouca attack 0.883 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Estoril (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Arouca xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Arouca kick off?
Estoril vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 4 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Estoril vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Arouca part of?
Estoril vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 39% chance of winning, Arouca a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Estoril and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
Record (6 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 0 | Arouca 4W.
What form are Estoril and Arouca in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.88x) against Estoril's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
Arouca xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Estoril and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Estoril and 1.06 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 9D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arouca sit at 1.26 PPG from 42 outings (15W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Estoril against 1.26 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 9W 2D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arouca have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.38 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 9D 23L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Arouca away?
Estoril's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.38 PPG; Arouca away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Estoril or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arouca in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-1 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
1
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, Arouca have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Arouca 3-2 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 33%, Arouca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 62% (Arouca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Arouca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Estoril's recent matches and 52% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estoril's matches and 62% of Arouca's.
Do Estoril and Arouca tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Arouca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Arouca 4-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.19 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Arouca attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 57%, Arouca 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Arouca's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.93 PPG, Arouca 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.