Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santa Clara — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Casa Pia) versus 1.10 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 3 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Santa Clara winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Casa Pia trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Santa Clara trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 55% versus Santa Clara 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 47% | Santa Clara 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.65 xG and Santa Clara 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.008 / defence 1.151 | Santa Clara attack 0.976 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.160. Data: 62 Casa Pia games / 63 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 46% | Draw 24% | Santa Clara 30%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Santa Clara 3.33. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 80% | Santa Clara 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 46% | Draw 24% | Santa Clara 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Casa Pia 1.65 / Santa Clara 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.008 / def 1.151 | Santa Clara attack 0.976 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Santa Clara xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kick off?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara part of?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 46% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Casa Pia and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Record (5 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
46%
2.20
24%
4.14
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.95
1.30
Santa Clara xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.30 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 19D 26L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (23W 13D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.13 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.94 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Santa Clara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 17W 19D 26L in their last 62 games (1.13 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Santa Clara away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.37 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Santa Clara have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 67%, Santa Clara 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Casa Pia and 30% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Casa Pia's games and 47% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Casa Pia's recent games and 30% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Santa Clara finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.65 xG and Santa Clara 1.30 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Santa Clara landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Santa Clara attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 46% | Draw 24% | Santa Clara 30%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Santa Clara 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.13 PPG, Santa Clara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.