Benfica 1-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Benfica at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Sporting CP at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.80 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.60 (Sporting CP). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Benfica have won 2, Sporting CP 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Sporting CP in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus Sporting CP 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 67% | Sporting CP 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.82 xG and Sporting CP 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.789 / defence 0.880 | Sporting CP attack 1.657 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.213. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.789 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.657 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Benfica games / 66 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 40% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 38%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Sporting CP 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 40% | Sporting CP 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 40% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Benfica 1.82 / Sporting CP 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.789 / def 0.880 | Sporting CP attack 1.657 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Benfica (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Sporting CP xG
70%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Sporting CP kick off?
Benfica vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Benfica 1 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Benfica vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Sporting CP part of?
Benfica vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 40% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Benfica and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
Record (7 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 2 | Sporting CP 3W.
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.79x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
40%
2.49
22%
4.55
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.59
1.77
Sporting CP xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Benfica and 1.77 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 50W 8D 8L from 66 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 53W 9D 4L across 66 games — 2.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benfica on 2.39 PPG, Sporting CP on 2.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 29W 3D 1L from 33 games — 2.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 23W 7D 3L across 33 trips, a 2.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.74 scored and 0.83 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Sporting CP's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Sporting CP in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Sporting CP
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 50W 8D 8L in their last 66 games (2.39 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 53W 9D 4L in their last 66 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Sporting CP away?
Benfica's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.73 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Benfica or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Sporting CP runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Benfica
4
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Sporting CP have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 42%, Sporting CP 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Benfica and 76% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Sporting CP in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Benfica's matches and 76% of Sporting CP's.
Do Benfica and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 33, as Benfica and Sporting CP drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.82 xG and Sporting CP 1.77 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.79 / defence 0.88 against Sporting CP attack 1.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 40% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 38%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 2.39 PPG, Sporting CP 2.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.