Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Motor Lublin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Motor Lublin stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Motor Lublin have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.50 (Motor Lublin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Motor Lublin trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 33% versus Motor Lublin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zaglebie Lubin 33% | Motor Lublin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.96 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.955 / defence 0.888 | Motor Lublin attack 1.097 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.205. Motor Lublin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Zaglebie Lubin games / 15 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Draw 22% | Motor Lublin 23%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Motor Lublin 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Motor Lublin 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Draw 22% | Motor Lublin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.96 / Motor Lublin 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.955 / def 0.888 | Motor Lublin attack 1.097 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Motor Lublin xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 56% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.57
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
3.13
1.17
Motor Lublin xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
3%
31.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.17 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Zaglebie Lubin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.47 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Motor Lublin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.86 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 29%, Motor Lublin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 57% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 57% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 57% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.96 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Motor Lublin attack 1.10 / defence 1.35, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Draw 22% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 33%, Motor Lublin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.