Widzew Łódź 3-2 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.943 / defence 1.297 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.046. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 0 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3.45. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.50 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.943 / def 1.297 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 45% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.94) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.85x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.90
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.65
1.15
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.15 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Pre-Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2025, when Widzew Łódź 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Puszcza Niepołomice outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.