Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (2.30 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Radomiak Radom — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Radomiak Radom 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Radomiak Radom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.52 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.035 / defence 0.972 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.972 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.020. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 34 games and Radomiak Radom's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 24%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.99 | Draw 3.87 | Radomiak Radom 4.17. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Gornik Zabrze 34 games, Radomiak Radom 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 23 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.52 / Radomiak Radom 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.035 / def 0.972 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.972 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 1) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 50% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.03) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.97x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 34 games and Radomiak Radom's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.87
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.48
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.96 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 13W 9D 12L from 34 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 14L across 34 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.29 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 6W 5D 6L from their last 17 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 7W 4D 6L across their last 17 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Pre-Season
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Pre-Season
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.35 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 53%, Radomiak Radom 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gornik Zabrze) and 53% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 47% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 53% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 65% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Gornik Zabrze 0-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.52 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 50% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Radomiak Radom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.41 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.