Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Stadion Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 3D 0L at Stadion Raków — 2.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Raków.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 1.80 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 53% versus Gornik Zabrze 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 71% | Gornik Zabrze 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.80 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.264 / defence 0.937 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.850 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.205. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Raków Częstochowa games / 17 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 23% | Gornik Zabrze 20%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Gornik Zabrze 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Gornik Zabrze 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 23% | Gornik Zabrze 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.80 / Gornik Zabrze 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.264 / def 0.937 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.850 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 57% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.26) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.34
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.75
0.96
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
30.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.96 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 5D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.41 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.14 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
6
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 43%, Gornik Zabrze 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Raków Częstochowa and 57% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 71% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 57% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.80 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.96 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 23% | Gornik Zabrze 20%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 71%, Gornik Zabrze 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.