Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom at this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 71% and Legia Warszawa 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Legia Warszawa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.083 / defence 1.051 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.008 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.112. Data: 35 Radomiak Radom games / 35 Legia Warszawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.29 / Legia Warszawa 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.083 / def 1.051 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.008 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Record (10 meetings): Radomiak Radom 4W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.08) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 12W 11D 12L from 35 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 9L across 35 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.34 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 4D 4L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.23 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.89 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 72%, Legia Warszawa at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Radomiak Radom) and 39% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Radomiak Radom's games and 61% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 39% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.