Radomiak Radom 1-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza: 3W 3D 0L from 6 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza than their overall form suggests.

Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Gornik Zabrze in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).

Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 75% and Gornik Zabrze 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 42% | Gornik Zabrze 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.005 / defence 1.027 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.893 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.244. Gornik Zabrze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Radomiak Radom games / 12 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Gornik Zabrze 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 83% | Gornik Zabrze 80% BTTS from recent games.

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