Piast Gliwice 1-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 17 as Piast Gliwice welcome Puszcza Niepołomice to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.30 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 52% and Puszcza Niepołomice 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 39% | Puszcza Niepołomice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.78 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.894 / defence 1.111 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.992 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.165. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Piast Gliwice games / 23 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 48% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3.85. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 48% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.78 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.894 / def 1.111 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.992 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 48% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.89x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.80
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.06
1.28
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.28 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 4W 13D 6L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 10L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.09 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.35 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 74%.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 13D 6L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.27 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 54%, Puszcza Niepołomice 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Piast Gliwice) and 54% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Piast Gliwice's games and 73% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 54% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.78 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.99 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 48% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 39%, Puszcza Niepołomice 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.09 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.