ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
ŁKS Łódź's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ŁKS Łódź's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Widzew Łódź's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Widzew Łódź arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Widzew Łódź — a Widzew Łódź win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 47% versus Widzew Łódź 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 53% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.07 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.769 / defence 1.349 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.987 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.243. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.349 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Widzew Łódź's projected output up. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 19 games and Widzew Łódź's last 54.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 23% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 50%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 4.31 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 2.01. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ŁKS Łódź's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 50% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 23% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.07 / Widzew Łódź 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.769 / def 1.349 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.987 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź?
ŁKS Łódź 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 23% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.99x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 19 games and Widzew Łódź's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
23%
4.31
27%
3.70
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.72
1.65
Widzew Łódź xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.65 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 2W 4D 13L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 5W 4D 10L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Widzew Łódź are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ŁKS Łódź have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (2W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.53 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 63%.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 13L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Widzew Łódź away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for ŁKS Łódź, 90% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 90% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 80% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat ŁKS Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.07 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.65 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.77 / defence 1.35 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 19/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 23% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 50%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 53%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.