Jagiellonia 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Jagiellonia welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jagiellonia 1.90 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 3 for Lech Poznan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lech Poznan trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 70% and Lech Poznan 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 61% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.359 / defence 0.859 | Lech Poznan attack 0.947 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.229. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Jagiellonia games / 54 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 20%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Lech Poznan 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 1.82 / Lech Poznan 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.359 / def 0.859 | Lech Poznan attack 0.947 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Record (5 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.36) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.16
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.82
1.00
Lech Poznan xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
31.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.00 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 21W 19D 14L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 27W 16D 11L from 54 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.52 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 11W 12D 3L from 26 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 21W 19D 14L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 27W 16D 11L in their last 54 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Lech Poznan away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.04 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Lech Poznan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-0 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 65%, Lech Poznan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Jagiellonia) and 50% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jagiellonia's games and 58% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Jagiellonia's matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.00 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.36 / defence 0.86 against Lech Poznan attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lech Poznan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 61%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.