Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.60 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Jagiellonia hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Zaglebie Lubin, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The historical record gives Jagiellonia a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 63% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.49 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / defence 1.109 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Jagiellonia 1.49 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / def 1.109 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Zaglebie Lubin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (10 meetings): Jagiellonia 5W | Draws 3 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.36
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.90
1.41
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.41 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 46 games, going 21W 11D 14L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.52 PPG from 46 outings (19W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.61 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 12W 3D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.33 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 14L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.77 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 68%, Zaglebie Lubin at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Jagiellonia and 54% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jagiellonia's games and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jagiellonia's matches and 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.