Jagiellonia 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze meet at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 4D 1L at Chorten Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Gornik Zabrze's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 67% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.154 / defence 0.994 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.842 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.244. Data: 64 Jagiellonia games / 64 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Gornik Zabrze 4.35. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.70 / Gornik Zabrze 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.154 / def 0.994 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.842 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gornik Zabrze xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 4W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.15x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.84x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.15
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.04
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
23.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.04 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 34W 16D 14L from 64 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 23L across 64 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.48 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 21W 7D 4L from 32 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 11W 6D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 34W 16D 14L in their last 64 games (1.84 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 14D 23L in their last 64 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.19 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 59%, Gornik Zabrze 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jagiellonia and 56% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jagiellonia's games and 59% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jagiellonia's matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.04 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 67%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.84 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.