Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.30 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Piast Gliwice 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 45% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.912 / defence 0.938 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.851 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.246. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Gornik Zabrze games / 49 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 34%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.03 / Piast Gliwice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.912 / def 0.938 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.851 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.91x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.27
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.03
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 21W 11D 17L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 14W 21D 14L from 49 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 10D 9L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.14 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 21W 11D 17L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 21D 14L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.75 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 42%, Piast Gliwice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Gornik Zabrze and 21% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games; Piast Gliwice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 46% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 21% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.76, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 34%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.