Gornik Zabrze 1-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 2.00 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Legia Warszawa 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Legia Warszawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 48% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.031 / defence 0.773 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.984 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.125. Gornik Zabrze's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Gornik Zabrze games / 59 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 19%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Legia Warszawa 5.26. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Legia Warszawa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.48 / Legia Warszawa 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.031 / def 0.773 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.984 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Legia Warszawa xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 49% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.03) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.13
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Legia Warszawa xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
22.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.86 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 15D 20L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 30W 17D 12L from 59 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.47 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 8D 10L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 30W 17D 12L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.62 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 45%, Legia Warszawa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gornik Zabrze) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 31%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 28% of games; Legia Warszawa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Gornik Zabrze 1-3 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.03 / defence 0.77 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.47 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.