Valerenga vs Ham-Kam – Live
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ham-Kam travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Valerenga) versus 1.20 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valerenga register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ham-Kam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Valerenga, 2 for Ham-Kam and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ham-Kam trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 60% versus Ham-Kam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 56% | Ham-Kam 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.64 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.327 / defence 1.069 | Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.275. Valerenga carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Valerenga games / 44 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 68% | Draw 17% | Ham-Kam 15%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Ham-Kam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 60% | Ham-Kam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 68% | Draw 17% | Ham-Kam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 65% | xG Valerenga 2.64 / Ham-Kam 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.327 / def 1.069 | Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ham-Kam xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Intility Arena. The match is currently in progress.
Where is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam part of?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 68% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Valerenga and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Record (7 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 3 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.33) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.76
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.84
1.20
Ham-Kam xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
7%
14.03
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
1%
94.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.20 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 18W 6D 19L from 43 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 19L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.40 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 18W 6D 19L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Ham-Kam away?
Valerenga's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.90 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Ham-Kam runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-0 Valerenga.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, Ham-Kam 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Valerenga) and 57% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 52% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Valerenga's matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Valerenga and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.