Tromso 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tromso (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Tromso face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Tromso welcome Stromsgodset to Romssa Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Tromso — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tromso's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Tromso carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Tromso hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Tromso 1–0 Stromsgodset — a Tromso win.
The head-to-head data gives Tromso an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Tromso in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 70% versus Stromsgodset 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 61% | Stromsgodset 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.34 xG and Stromsgodset 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.878 / defence 0.895 | Stromsgodset attack 0.651 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.369. Stromsgodset's attack rating of 0.651 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Tromso's last 56 games and Stromsgodset's last 56.
Result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 22%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.02 | Draw 3.55 | Stromsgodset 4.49. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tromso 80% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Tromso 1.34 / Stromsgodset 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.878 / def 0.895 | Stromsgodset attack 0.651 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Tromso (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Stromsgodset xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Tromso vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Tromso 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Tromso vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Stromsgodset part of?
Tromso vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 50% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Tromso and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Tromso vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 56 games and Stromsgodset's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.55
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.14
0.80
Stromsgodset xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tromso and 0.80 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso's recent record stands at 27W 16D 13L from 56 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 28L across 56 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 16W 7D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 6D 17L across their last 28 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.32 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
Tromso (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Tromso vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 16D 13L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 19W 9D 28L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Stromsgodset away?
Tromso's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.96 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Tromso have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Tromso's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Stromsgodset?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2025: Tromso 3-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Stromsgodset?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 71%, Stromsgodset 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Tromso) and 43% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Stromsgodset matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tromso's games and 39% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Tromso's recent games and 43% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Tromso's recent matches and 57% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Tromso 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Tromso 0-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.34 xG and Stromsgodset 0.80 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 0.65 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 50% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 22%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 61%, Stromsgodset 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.