Lillestrom 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lillestrom stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Lillestrom have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Lillestrom hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Haugesund and 0 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Lillestrom 0–1 Haugesund — a Haugesund win.
The head-to-head data gives Lillestrom an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 59% versus Haugesund 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 61% | Haugesund 55%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Lillestrom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.40 xG and Haugesund 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.063 / defence 0.949 | Haugesund attack 0.856 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Haugesund bring a tight defence (rating 0.716, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lillestrom's projected output down. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 56 games and Haugesund's last 56.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.29 | Draw 3.76 | Haugesund 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Lillestrom 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 60% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lillestrom 1.40 / Haugesund 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.063 / def 0.949 | Haugesund attack 0.856 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Haugesund xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Haugesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Lillestrom 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Haugesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 44% chance of winning, Haugesund a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lillestrom and Haugesund will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lillestrom vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (1.06) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 56 games and Haugesund's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.76
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.50
1.11
Haugesund xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.11 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 28W 8D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 18W 14D 24L from 56 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 28 home games (17W 2D 9L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 14L from their last 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.29 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
Lillestrom (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Lillestrom vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 28W 8D 20L in their last 56 games (1.64 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Haugesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.89 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won Haugesund 0-3 Lillestrom.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 6, Haugesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2024: Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 54%, Haugesund 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lillestrom) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 46% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lillestrom and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lillestrom's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 61% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Haugesund 1-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.40 xG and Haugesund 1.11 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Haugesund attack 0.86 / defence 0.72, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 44% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 61%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.