Tromso 3-3 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Romssa Arena, Tromso have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Ham-Kam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Tromso, 1.50 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Tromso are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Tromso a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tromso — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 48% versus Ham-Kam 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Ham-Kam 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.38 xG and Ham-Kam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.924 / defence 0.892 | Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Data: 56 Tromso games / 56 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 46% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 27%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Ham-Kam 3.70. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tromso 40% | Ham-Kam 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 46% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Tromso 1.38 / Ham-Kam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.924 / def 0.892 | Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Tromso (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso 3 - 3 Ham-Kam.
Where is Tromso vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Ham-Kam part of?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 46% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tromso and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Tromso 4W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in?
Tromso (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.92) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.90x) against Tromso's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.68
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Tromso and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Tromso and 1.00 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 27W 9D 20L from 56 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 26L across 56 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 13W 5D 10L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.25 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 9D 20L in their last 56 games (1.61 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Ham-Kam away?
Tromso's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.57 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Tromso or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 54%, Ham-Kam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Tromso and 57% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 29% of games; Ham-Kam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Tromso's recent matches and 54% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Tromso's matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Tromso and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Tromso and Ham-Kam drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.38 xG and Ham-Kam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 46% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 27%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Ham-Kam 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.