Sandefjord 3-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Jotun Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 2D 3L at Jotun Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sandefjord, 1.50 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Sandefjord 3W, Stromsgodset 2W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Stromsgodset 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 62% | Stromsgodset 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.141 / defence 0.793 | Stromsgodset attack 1.318 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.376. Stromsgodset have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Sandefjord games / 37 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 60% | Stromsgodset 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sandefjord 1.75 / Stromsgodset 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.141 / def 0.793 | Stromsgodset attack 1.318 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stromsgodset xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Sandefjord 3 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sandefjord and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
Record (8 meetings): Sandefjord 3W | Draws 3 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.14) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (1.32x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.07
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.18
1.44
Stromsgodset xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.44 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 23W 11D 26L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.33 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 8W 6D 16L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.53 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 57%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sandefjord) and 37% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 27% of games; Stromsgodset in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sandefjord's recent games and 37% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Stromsgodset 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 3-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.44 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.14 / defence 0.79 against Stromsgodset attack 1.32 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Stromsgodset 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.