Sandefjord 3-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 53%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sandefjord have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sandefjord's games and 60% of Rosenborg's (from Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sandefjord have won 0, Rosenborg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Sandefjord 1–1 Rosenborg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 61% and Rosenborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 74% | Rosenborg 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sandefjord surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.91 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.894 / defence 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.958 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 57 games and Rosenborg's last 57.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.90 | Draw 4.48 | Rosenborg 3.99. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 60% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sandefjord 1.91 / Rosenborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.894 / def 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.958 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rosenborg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 3 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 53% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.89x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 57 games and Rosenborg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.48
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.16
1.26
Rosenborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
26.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.26 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 12W 13D 32L from 57 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 17L across 57 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 6W 11D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
Sandefjord (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 12W 13D 32L in their last 57 games (0.86 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.04 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2022, when Rosenborg won Rosenborg 3-0 Sandefjord.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
4
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 71%, Rosenborg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sandefjord and 71% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sandefjord's games and 71% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sandefjord's matches and 71% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 89% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Rosenborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Rosenborg 3-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.91 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 74%, Rosenborg 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.