Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (86%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.50 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Aalesund in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 67% versus Aalesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Aalesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 4.10 xG and Aalesund 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.402 / defence 1.039 | Aalesund attack 0.797 / defence 1.629. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 4.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.629 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bodo/Glimt games / 57 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 8% | Aalesund 6%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.16 | Draw 12.50 | Aalesund 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (86%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 89% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 5.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 89% — a total xG of 5.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (4.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 86% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 89% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Aalesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 8% | Aalesund 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 89% | BTTS 67% | xG Bodo/Glimt 4.10 / Aalesund 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.402 / def 1.039 | Aalesund attack 0.797 / def 1.629 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.10
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Aalesund xG
67%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
77%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 86% chance of winning, Aalesund a 6% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 89%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 4.10. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.80x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 4-1, at 7.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.9%), 4-0 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
86%
1.16
8%
12.45
6%
17.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
4 – 0
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.10
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
5.25
1.15
Aalesund xG
1.16
86%
Home win
12.45
8%
Draw
17.89
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
89%
Over 2.5
1.12
11%
Under 2.5
9.09
77%
Over 3.5
1.30
23%
Under 3.5
4.35
60%
Over 4.5
1.67
40%
Under 4.5
2.50
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
2%
60.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 4.10 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.15 for Aalesund, a combined total of 5.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 38W 10D 9L from 57 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 30L across 57 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 18W 8D 2L from 28 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aalesund's away record stands at 5W 4D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.95 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 10D 9L in their last 57 games (2.18 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Aalesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.21 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Aalesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 68%, Aalesund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 75% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 54% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 75% of Aalesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 1-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 4.10 xG and Aalesund 1.15 xG, a combined 5.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt fell 3.1 short of their projected output. Aalesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 1.04 against Aalesund attack 0.80 / defence 1.63, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 8% | Aalesund 6%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 86%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 89%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 97% and missed. Over 3.5 was 77% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 74%, Aalesund 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.