Rosenborg 3-0 Bryne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Bryne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bryne travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rosenborg at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.61 xG and Bryne 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.785 / defence 0.715 | Bryne attack 0.941 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.363. Rosenborg's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.61. Bryne's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rosenborg's projected output up. Rosenborg have a tight defence (rating 0.715), which is pulling Bryne's projected output down. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 35 games and Bryne's last 4.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 28% | Bryne 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.91 | Draw 3.58 | Bryne 5.04. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 28% | Bryne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Rosenborg 1.61 / Bryne 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.785 / def 0.715 | Bryne attack 0.941 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bryne xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Bryne FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Bryne kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bryne kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Bryne?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Bryne.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bryne part of?
Rosenborg vs Bryne is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 52% chance of winning, Bryne a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Bryne will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Rosenborg vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.79) and Bryne's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bryne's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 35 games and Bryne's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.58
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.53
0.92
Bryne xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
25.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Bryne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.92 for Bryne, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bryne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
Bryne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Rosenborg (Home) vs Bryne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
Bryne
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2025. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 18 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
1
Draws
0
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Bryne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bryne?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 1, Bryne have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bryne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Bryne 2-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bryne?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bryne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Bryne 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.61 xG and Bryne 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bryne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.79 / defence 0.71 against Bryne attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 52% | Draw 28% | Bryne 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.