Fredrikstad 0-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 July 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fredrikstad 0W, Bodo/Glimt 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Bodo/Glimt 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.097 / defence 0.880 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.158 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.279. Data: 44 Fredrikstad games / 42 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 40% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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