Molde 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde in Eliteserien (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Molde have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Molde at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Molde 1.80 PPG, Haugesund 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Molde hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 8 wins compared to 0 for Haugesund and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Molde 3–0 Haugesund — a Molde win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Molde and goals — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Haugesund trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 70% | Haugesund 47%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Molde recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.24 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.025 / defence 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.763 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.397. Haugesund's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Molde's projected output up. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Molde's last 34 games and Haugesund's last 35.
Result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.66 | Draw 4.61 | Haugesund 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Molde (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.24 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Molde 8 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Molde's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Molde 70% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Molde 2.24 / Haugesund 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.025 / def 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.763 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Molde (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Haugesund xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Molde vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 60% chance of winning, Haugesund a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.02x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Molde's last 34 games and Haugesund's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.61
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Molde xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
Haugesund xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
2%
52.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Molde and 1.18 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Molde have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 30W 13D 17L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 18W 13D 29L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 10D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
Molde (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.90 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won each of the latest 10 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won Haugesund 0-3 Molde.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Molde vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Molde and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Molde and Haugesund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Molde and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Molde's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Molde's recent matches and 63% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.24 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Haugesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.