Haugesund 2-3 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 1D 8L at Haugesund Stadion — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Tromso's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Haugesund, 4 for Tromso and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Tromso winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus Tromso 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 53% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.06 xG and Tromso 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.704 / defence 1.452 | Tromso attack 0.956 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.400. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Haugesund games / 55 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 20% | Draw 23% | Tromso 57%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Tromso 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 20% | Draw 23% | Tromso 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 1.06 / Tromso 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.704 / def 1.452 | Tromso attack 0.956 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Tromso (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Tromso xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Haugesund 2 - 3 Tromso.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 20% chance of winning, Tromso a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 4W | Draws 1 | Tromso 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
20%
5.06
23%
4.40
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.00
1.94
Tromso xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
3%
35.32
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.94 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 10W 10D 35L from 55 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 23L across 55 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 8W 3D 16L from 27 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 10W 4D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.33 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 10W 10D 35L in their last 55 games (0.73 PPG), while Tromso have gone 23W 9D 23L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.00 PPG; Tromso away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Tromso in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 30%, Tromso 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Haugesund) and 44% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 52% of games; Tromso in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Haugesund's recent matches and 41% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Haugesund's recent games and 44% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Tromso tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Tromso in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Haugesund 2-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.06 xG and Tromso 1.94 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso outscored their 1.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.45 against Tromso attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 20% | Draw 23% | Tromso 57%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.