Ham-Kam 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Brann meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 1D 5L at Briskeby Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Brann (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Brann winning.
It is worth noting that Brann have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 44% | Brann 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Brann 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.960 / defence 1.128 | Brann attack 1.005 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.408. Data: 41 Ham-Kam games / 43 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 24% | Brann 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Brann 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 40% | Brann 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 24% | Brann 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Ham-Kam 1.64 / Brann 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.960 / def 1.128 | Brann attack 1.005 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Brann xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Brann kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Brann kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 July 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Brann part of?
Ham-Kam vs Brann is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 39% chance of winning, Brann a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ham-Kam and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | Brann 4W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Brann (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.96x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.00x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 41/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
39%
2.56
24%
4.22
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.23
1.59
Brann xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.59 for Brann, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 12D 18L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 24W 10D 7L from 41 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Brann have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Brann have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.21 PPG; Brann away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Brann in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
7
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Brann have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 42%, Brann 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ham-Kam) and 68% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brann in 32%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 58% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Ham-Kam's matches and 68% of Brann's.
Do Ham-Kam and Brann tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Brann in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Ham-Kam and Brann drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Brann 1.59 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 24% | Brann 37%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 44%, Brann 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.