Fredrikstad vs Molde – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Molde make the trip to Fredrikstad Stadion to face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Fredrikstad (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Fredrikstad, 1.70 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fredrikstad have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fredrikstad lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 48% versus Molde 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Molde 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.54 xG and Molde 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / defence 0.847 | Molde attack 1.218 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 48 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 24% | Molde 36%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 60% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 24% | Molde 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Fredrikstad 1.54 / Molde 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / def 0.847 | Molde attack 1.218 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Molde xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Molde kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Molde is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Molde part of?
Fredrikstad vs Molde is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 39% chance of winning, Molde a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fredrikstad and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Molde?
Record (4 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 1 | Molde 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Molde in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.80) and Molde's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.22x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.09
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.01
1.47
Molde xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.47 for Molde, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fredrikstad come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 11D 18L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (21W 6D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.44 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fredrikstad's home form reads 12W 5D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 1.71 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Molde in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Molde have gone 21W 6D 21L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Molde away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.78 PPG; Molde away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fredrikstad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 6-1 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Molde?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Molde have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Molde 1-2 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Molde?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 56%, Molde 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fredrikstad) and 61% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Molde in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fredrikstad's games and 56% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 61% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Molde tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Molde in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.