Fredrikstad 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Fredrikstad welcome Kristiansund BK to Nye Fredrikstad Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Fredrikstad) versus 1.20 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2024, ended 1–3 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 38% versus Kristiansund BK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 42% | Kristiansund BK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.33 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 1.003 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.622 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Data: 26 Fredrikstad games / 26 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 50% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | Kristiansund BK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 50% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Fredrikstad 1.33 / Kristiansund BK 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / def 1.003 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.622 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kristiansund BK xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 50% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.86x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.53
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.10
0.77
Kristiansund BK xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.77 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 12W 7D 7L from 26 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 10L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 6W 5D 2L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.12 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.77 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Fredrikstad.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 38%, Kristiansund BK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Fredrikstad) and 38% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 38% of games; Kristiansund BK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK finished level at 1-1 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.33 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.62 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 50% | Draw 28% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 42%, Kristiansund BK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.