Bryne 1-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bryne vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bryne host Viking at Bryne Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bryne stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bryne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bryne have posted 4W 1D 2L at Bryne Stadion — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Bryne in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Viking in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bryne 64% and Viking 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bryne 57% | Viking 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 1.47 xG and Viking 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 0.929 / defence 1.169 | Viking attack 1.276 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.362. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Bryne games / 47 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bryne 28% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 1.96. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Bryne 57% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 28% | Draw 22% | Viking 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Bryne 1.47 / Viking 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 0.929 / def 1.169 | Viking attack 1.276 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Viking (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bryne vs Viking kick off?
Bryne vs Viking kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Viking?
Bryne 1 - 3 Viking.
Where is Bryne vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Viking part of?
Bryne vs Viking is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 28% chance of winning, Viking a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bryne and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Bryne vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bryne and Viking in?
Bryne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bryne's attack at 0.93x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Bryne's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
28%
3.61
22%
4.64
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bryne xG
Total xG
3.50
2.03
Viking xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
13%
7.63
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
4%
27.52
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Bryne and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bryne and 2.03 for Viking, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bryne's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bryne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 2L across 14 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bryne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bryne have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Bryne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Viking's away record stands at 5W 1D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bryne are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.50 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bryne have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Viking in 64%.
Defensively: Viking in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bryne and Viking in coming into this match?
Bryne have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Viking have gone 9W 3D 2L in their last 14 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bryne at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bryne at home: 1.86 PPG; Viking away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Bryne or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bryne have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Viking in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bryne and Viking runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bryne
0
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Viking?
From 2 meetings on record, Bryne have won 0, Viking have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Viking 5-1 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bryne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bryne 57%, Viking 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bryne) and 57% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bryne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bryne play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bryne's games and 71% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bryne vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bryne's matches and 57% of Viking's.
Do Bryne and Viking tend to score early?
Bryne have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Viking in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bryne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bryne 1-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.47 xG and Viking 2.03 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Viking attack 1.28 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 28% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 57%, Viking 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bryne's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bryne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.