Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 61% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.69 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / defence 0.813 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.743 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.275. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Bodo/Glimt games / 51 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.32 | Draw 5.88 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 51% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.69 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / def 0.813 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.743 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
51%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 76% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.74x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
76%
1.31
17%
5.95
7%
14.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.46
0.77
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
14.75
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
7%
14.69
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.77 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 39W 8D 4L from 51 games, a 2.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 24L across 51 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 21W 3D 1L from 25 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 39W 8D 4L in their last 51 games (2.45 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.64 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bodo/Glimt and 48% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 48% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.69 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.77 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.81 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.74 / defence 1.30, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 17% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 74%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.