Valerenga vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valerenga have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Intility Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Valerenga have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Haugesund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Valerenga 1W, Haugesund 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–3 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valerenga — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 71% and Haugesund 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 54% | Haugesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.06 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.011 / defence 0.938 | Haugesund attack 1.128 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Data: 48 Valerenga games / 48 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 4.35. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 90% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Valerenga 2.06 / Haugesund 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.011 / def 0.938 | Haugesund attack 1.128 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Haugesund xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Haugesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Haugesund part of?
Valerenga vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Valerenga and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (1.13x) against Valerenga's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.02
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.41
1.34
Haugesund xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.34 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 18D 9L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.40 PPG from 48 outings (19W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Valerenga against 1.40 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valerenga's home form reads 13W 10D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 21W 18D 9L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Haugesund away?
Valerenga's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.04 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Valerenga, 58% for Haugesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Valerenga) and 58% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Valerenga's games and 58% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Valerenga's matches and 58% of Haugesund's.
Do Valerenga and Haugesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Valerenga and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.06 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 54%, Haugesund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.69 PPG, Haugesund 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.