Heracles 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Groningen meet at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Asito Stadion this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Groningen have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Heracles, 0 for Groningen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 53% versus Groningen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | Groningen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.98 xG and Groningen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.937 / defence 1.031 | Groningen attack 0.627 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.331. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Heracles games / 19 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 64% | Draw 21% | Groningen 16%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Groningen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Heracles 80% | Groningen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 64% | Draw 21% | Groningen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Heracles 1.98 / Groningen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.937 / def 1.031 | Groningen attack 0.627 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Heracles (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Groningen xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Groningen kick off?
Heracles vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Groningen?
Heracles 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Heracles vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Groningen part of?
Heracles vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 64% chance of winning, Groningen a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Heracles and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Heracles and Groningen in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.94) and Groningen's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.63x) against Heracles's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.78
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.84
0.86
Groningen xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
46.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Heracles and 0.86 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 13W 13D 27L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 25W 13D 15L from 53 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Groningen are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (7W 10D 9L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 10W 5D 11L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.53 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Groningen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 13W 13D 27L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Groningen have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.19 PPG; Groningen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Heracles or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Groningen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Groningen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Heracles 1-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 62%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Heracles) and 58% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heracles's games and 54% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Heracles's matches and 58% of Groningen's.
Do Heracles and Groningen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Groningen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles and Groningen finished level at 1-1 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.98 xG and Groningen 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Groningen attack 0.63 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 64% | Draw 21% | Groningen 16%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, Groningen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.