Heerenveen 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees PEC Zwolle travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion to take on Heerenveen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 1.20 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 1, PEC Zwolle 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 52% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heerenveen 66% | PEC Zwolle 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.058 / defence 1.083 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.105 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.454. Data: 57 Heerenveen games / 23 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 35% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 41%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 50% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 35% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Heerenveen 1.61 / PEC Zwolle 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.058 / def 1.083 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.105 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.74
PEC Zwolle xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 35% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Heerenveen 1W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (1.06) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.15
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.35
1.74
PEC Zwolle xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.74 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 20W 14D 25L from 59 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 17L across 59 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 11W 5D 13L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 15W 6D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 10D 17L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.31 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Heerenveen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 62%, PEC Zwolle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Heerenveen and 72% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heerenveen's games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Heerenveen's matches and 72% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.74 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 35% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 41%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 66%, PEC Zwolle 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.