FC Volendam 2-5 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC Volendam host NEC Nijmegen at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

NEC Nijmegen — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

NEC Nijmegen away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended FC Volendam 3–3 NEC Nijmegen — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and NEC Nijmegen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | NEC Nijmegen 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Volendam surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while NEC Nijmegen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.05 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.634 / defence 1.523 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.092 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.453. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.523 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NEC Nijmegen's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 57 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 57.

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 14% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 67%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 7.05 | Draw 5.33 | NEC Nijmegen 1.49. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.05 / 2.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 40% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 80% (last 10 away games).

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