FC Volendam 3-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Heracles meet at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heracles (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for FC Volendam, 0.30 for Heracles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Heracles in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Volendam 0W, Heracles 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and Heracles 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 74% | Heracles 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.83 xG and Heracles 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.849 / defence 1.082 | Heracles attack 0.676 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.561. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 FC Volendam games / 43 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 23% | Heracles 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Heracles 4.17. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 23% | Heracles 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Volendam 1.83 / Heracles 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.849 / def 1.082 | Heracles attack 0.676 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Heracles xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heracles kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Heracles?
FC Volendam 3 - 0 Heracles.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heracles part of?
FC Volendam vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 53% chance of winning, Heracles a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Volendam and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 2 | Heracles 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.85x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.68x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.37
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.97
1.14
Heracles xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
26.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.14 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 26W 8D 9L from 43 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 22L across 43 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 3W 3D 15L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.14 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Heracles in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 games (2.00 PPG), while Heracles have gone 10W 11D 22L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heracles away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.24 PPG; Heracles away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Heracles have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heracles?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Heracles 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for FC Volendam and 62% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 48% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of Heracles's.
Do FC Volendam and Heracles tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Heracles in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Heracles 3-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.83 xG and Heracles 1.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Heracles attack 0.68 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 53% | Draw 23% | Heracles 24%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 74%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.