Ajax vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajax face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Johan Cruijff Arena to face Ajax in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ajax (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Johan Cruijff Arena, Ajax have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Ajax. A 1.10 PPG lead over Cambuur (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cambuur in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Ajax have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Cambuur managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 5–0 with Ajax winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajax and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajax 62% and Cambuur 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 56% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.30 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.056 / defence 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ajax games / 4 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 58% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Cambuur 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 58% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Ajax 2.30 / Cambuur 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.056 / def 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Ajax (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cambuur xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Cambuur kick off?
Ajax vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Where is Ajax vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Cambuur part of?
Ajax vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 58% chance of winning, Cambuur a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Ajax and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Ajax 4W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Ajax and Cambuur in?
Ajax (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ajax's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.78x) against Ajax's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
58%
1.73
20%
4.88
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.67
1.37
Cambuur xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
2%
46.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Ajax and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Ajax and 1.37 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Ajax have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 17W 16D 6L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur's form line: 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Ajax against 1.85 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajax have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajax are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.97 scored and 1.62 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Cambuur in 72%.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 17W 16D 6L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 1.67 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Ajax or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cambuur in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 9-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajax have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajax have won 4, Cambuur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Cambuur 0-5 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Cambuur?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Ajax, 72% for Cambuur — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Ajax and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ajax's games and 72% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajax vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ajax's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do Ajax and Cambuur tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.