Roda 3-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Vitesse meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Roda's favour (1.80 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Vitesse 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Vitesse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.77 xG and Vitesse 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.959 / defence 0.763 | Vitesse attack 0.907 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.449. Roda's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Roda games / 15 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Vitesse 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Roda 40% | Vitesse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Roda 1.77 / Vitesse 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.959 / def 0.763 | Vitesse attack 0.907 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Roda (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vitesse xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Vitesse kick off?
Roda vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Vitesse?
Roda 3 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Roda vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Vitesse part of?
Roda vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 55% chance of winning, Vitesse a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Roda and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Vitesse in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Vitesse (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Roda vs Vitesse?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.96x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.91x) against Roda's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.10
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Roda xG
Total xG
2.77
1.00
Vitesse xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
28.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Roda and 1.00 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 22W 17D 10L from 49 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 29L across 49 games — 0.73 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitesse's away record stands at 5W 2D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 0.98 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 22W 17D 10L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 8W 12D 29L in their last 49 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Vitesse away?
Roda's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.17 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Roda or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vitesse in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Roda
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Roda 0-1 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 52%, Vitesse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 65% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Vitesse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Roda's recent matches and 48% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 65% of Vitesse's.
Do Roda and Vitesse tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Vitesse 3-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.77 xG and Vitesse 1.00 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.96 / defence 0.76 against Vitesse attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 55% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Vitesse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitesse's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.