Roda vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Roda at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Roda (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Volendam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Volendam away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Roda, 1.60 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Roda 0W, FC Volendam 1W, 3D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus FC Volendam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 49% | FC Volendam 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.08 xG and FC Volendam 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.879 / defence 0.814 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Roda games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 63% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 17%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | FC Volendam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Roda (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.

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