NAC Breda vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Roda at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.30 PPG, Roda 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for Roda and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Roda trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Roda 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.15 xG and Roda 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / defence 1.208 | Roda attack 0.844 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Roda's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 NAC Breda games / 42 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 25% | Draw 24% | Roda 51%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 1.96. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Roda 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 25% | Draw 24% | Roda 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG NAC Breda 1.15 / Roda 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / def 1.208 | Roda attack 0.844 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Roda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Roda xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 25% chance of winning, Roda a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): NAC Breda 4W | Draws 3 | Roda 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.87x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
25%
3.95
24%
4.22
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.88
1.73
Roda xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
22.28
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.73 for Roda, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 12D 18L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda's form line: 13W 14D 11L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Roda have gone 9W 7D 3L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.39 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.50 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Roda have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.21 PPG; Roda away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 9 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Roda 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (NAC Breda) and 63% (Roda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of NAC Breda's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of NAC Breda's recent games and 63% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.