Jong PSV U21 1-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at PSV Campus De Herdgang this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.10 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong PSV U21 lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 67% versus De Graafschap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 64% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.991 / defence 0.897 | De Graafschap attack 0.987 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: 42 Jong PSV U21 games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 47% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 3.57. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 47% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.991 / def 0.897 | De Graafschap attack 0.987 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
De Graafschap xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 47% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.99) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.99x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.01
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.73
1.15
De Graafschap xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.15 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 15W 9D 18L from 42 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 18L across 42 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.33 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 10W 3D 8L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.57 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.57 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong PSV U21 and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 1-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.15 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 47% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 28%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 64%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.29 PPG, De Graafschap 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.