Groningen 4-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Jong PSV U21 at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Groningen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Jong PSV U21's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Groningen's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus Jong PSV U21 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 54% | Jong PSV U21 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.57 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.811 / defence 0.931 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.961 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.318. Data: 5 Groningen games / 43 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 46% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 29%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 3.45. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong PSV U21 (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 40% | Jong PSV U21 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 46% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Groningen 1.57 / Jong PSV U21 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.811 / def 0.931 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.961 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Groningen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Jong PSV U21?
Groningen 4 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 46% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Groningen and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Jong PSV U21 in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.00
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.75
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Groningen and 1.18 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen's recent record stands at 6W 7D 26L from 39 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 17L across 39 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong PSV U21 by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 4W 3D 12L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 5W 5D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.59 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 6W 7D 26L in their last 39 games (0.64 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 8D 17L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.79 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Jong PSV U21 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong PSV U21?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Jong PSV U21 2-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Jong PSV U21?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 47%, Jong PSV U21 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Groningen) and 58% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 42% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Groningen's games and 68% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Groningen's matches and 58% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Groningen and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.57 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 46% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 29%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 54%, Jong PSV U21 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong PSV U21 arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.